The PakStack — June 23

After Iran’s 'Missiles with Manners,' Trump Declares a Ceasefire Ending the “12 Day War”

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Written by Shiza M. / Edited by Wajahat S. Khan

JUST IN: Trump gets his second ceasefire in as many months

ALERT: In classic Trumpian flair, the President announced a “complete and total CEASEFIRE” between Israel and Iran —right after both sides finish their “in progress, final missions.” The phased-over 24 hours truce, revealed via Truth Social on June 23, marks the official end of what Trump has declared the 12 Day War. The American President congratulated both countries for their “Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence,” blessing everyone from Israel to Iran to the entire planet. While Iran and Israel haven’t responded to Trump’s declaration, in his world, nothing says peace like a countdown clock, controlled oil shocks and pre-scheduled final bombings. Editor’s Note: After the India-Pakistan ceasefire in May (which India refuses to give him credit for), expect Trump to push for getting the Nobel Peace Prize which an obsequious Pakistan just nominated him for last week)

1. Missiles with Manners Transform Middle East Dynamic

Before the Ceasefire, Good Manners: Iran launched missile attacks on U.S. military bases in Qatar on June 23, at approximately 7:39 PM local time, following a display of very good behaviour: advance warning to both Washington and Doha that prevented any casualties. The strikes were retaliation for President Trump's Operation Midnight Hammer over the weekend which deployed more than 125 aircraft, including B-2 bombers dropping multiple so-called bunker busters, the first time they were used in combat. Also a submarine was used, firing several dozen Tomahawk missiles towards three Iranian nuclear facilities: Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council emphasized the action "posed no threat whatsoever to our friendly and brotherly nation, Qatar, or its honorable people," while Qatar still condemned it as "a flagrant violation" of sovereignty. President Trump publicly thanked Iran, stating: "I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured." And when he declared, “Congratulations, world. It’s time for peace!” he wasn’t kidding.

Escalation Management: Iran's advance warning system to the Americans and the Qataris creates a precedent for non-escalatory kinetic action,demonstrating the availability of an off-ramp for all sides. This model allows adversaries to show force while providing face-saving exits for all parties. Iran had to respond to U.S. actions. It did with just enough good manners.

Direct U.S.-Iran Military Exchange: For the first time, the U.S. directly bombed Iranian nuclear infrastructure, and Iran directly retaliated against U.S. military assets. While American actions crossed Iran’s “red lines,”Tehran paradoxically maintained diplomatic channels through coordination

Nuclear Weak Spot: The successful U.S. strikes on three major nuclear facilities demonstrate Iran's infrastructure remains vulnerable despite years of hardening efforts, potentially affecting Iran's nuclear timeline and regional deterrence calculations. An IAEA assessment cited “significant damage” to enrichment facilities, while President Trump convened an urgent NSC meeting to determine whether Iran had moved its uranium stockpiles before the attack.

Tactical Takeaway: Iran's "managed retaliation" model—combining military action with advance coordination—fundamentally alters Middle Eastern conflict dynamics. By providing warnings that prevent casualties while still demonstrating strike capability, Iran achieved strategic messaging without triggering uncontrolled escalation and risking further action by America . Trump's public acknowledgment legitimizes this approach, potentially encouraging other regional actors to adopt similar "coordinated confrontation" tactics. Israel is the missing link. Will Nentanyahu slow down his attacks or escalate? Meanwhile, Iran’s holding the Hormuz Hand, with the possible ability to block the Strait of Hormuz in a move that is guaranteed to short-term energy price shock.This precedent could reshape how adversaries conduct future military demonstrations, prioritizing strategic signaling over kinetic damage while maintaining diplomatic off-ramps.

2. Pakistan’s Hard Options

What, Where, When & Who: Pakistan finds itself navigating an increasingly precarious diplomatic crisis following US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif convened an emergency National Security Committee (NSC) meeting as Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif declared Pakistan's complete solidarity with neighboring Iran. The timing proved particularly challenging—not only has a triumphant Field Marshal Asim Munir just returned from a mostly successful tour of the U.S. – featuring a luncheon with Donald Trump, resetting Pakistan’s bilateral equation with Washington over goat cheese gateau (halal) and a $1.3 trillion mineral deal (halal status unclear), but the Pakistanis had continued their warm embrace of Trump by nominating the American president for a Nobel Peace Prize, and ironic 48 hours before he attacked Iran.. Thus, Pakistan faces both a domestic and global quandary: local political parties are pressuring the government to rescind the nomination, creating internal tensions as Pakistan’s Shi’ites (there are about 30-50 million of them in the largely Sunni country of 240 million) take to the streets. Also at stake are Pakistan's broader strategic contradictions: continue to cozy up to Trump or stand firm against Israeli aggression, which has now reached Pakistan’s doorstep – the 900km border with Iran

The Diplomatic Tightrope: Pakistan’s trying to back Iran just enough to look principled, without upsetting its Saudi and UAE bankers or triggering more side-eye from Washington. Meanwhile, its long, messy border with Iran in Balochistan adds real risk to the theatrics. When rumors began circulating on social media that Iran claimed Islamabad had offered nuclear support against Israel, Pakistan swiftly responded with a firm denial. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar dismissed such claims as “fabricated,” reminding everyone that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is specifically reserved for India–because apparently, even nuclear policy comes with geographic restriction. The controversy escalated further when an Israeli official made provocative threats suggesting Pakistan could be “next after Iran,” adding another layer of tension to an already volatile situation.

Why It Matters: Pakistan’s Iran crisis playbook underscores the classic dilemma of a middle power stuck in a multipolar mess. As Sahar Khan puts it for the Atlantic Council, Islamabad’s trying to nod at Tehran without ticking off the Saudis, Emiratis and Uncle Sam. It’s tightrope diplomacy with regional stability and national security dangling underneath. Clinging to “strategic autonomy,” Pakistan hopes to charm Washington without ghosting its Muslim allies, while keeping its nuclear doctrine laser-focused on India— tidy “red lines” that signal discipline and a hard pass on broader nuclear entanglements. But if the Israel-Iran showdown drags on, Pakistan risks turning into a) a logistics hub for Operation Save Tehran or worse b) a holding pen for refugees it can’t afford or even worse c) dealing with a joint Sistan-Balochistan militant ensemble or the most disastrous option d) aiding the U.S. (and Israel) with logistic, intelligence or even military support from Iran’s western border. Getting closer to Iran might earn rhetorical points, hate to say it but as Khawaja Asif warned, it’s also a shortcut to deeper regional chaos—right when Pakistan’s already battling rising militancy in KP and Balochistan and struggling to keep its economy and diplomacy from unraveling.

Tactical Takeaway: Pakistan’s so-called “strategic clarity” is really a masterclass in diplomatic multitasking: back Iran’s right to self-defense, reject nuclear escalation, stay visible in regional security, and still keep the Saudis and Americans on speed dial. It’s all about compartmentalization—support Tehran in theory, but keep the nukes strictly India-facing. This isn’t confusion, it’s calculated survival. Pakistan’s ability to engage the Trump camp on Kashmir while condemning U.S. strikes on Iran shows it isn’t picking sides—it’s playing them. In a region where the wrong move can be fatal, ambiguity is a feature, not a flaw. The road ahead demands more of the same: talk to everyone, promise nothing, and avoid being sucked into conflicts far beyond Pakistan’s capacity. Like it or not, Islamabad’s moves still matter—even if it prefers to influence from the sidelines. But yeah, the Nobel Peace Prize nomination, which was politically cringe to begin with, but Machiavellian in its purpose, cannot be dropped, unless Pakistan wants to pick a personal fight with The Donald.

3. Water, War, and Proxy Flashpoints

What & Who: Exactly two months after India announced the abeyance of the Indus Water Treaty tensions over water between India and Pakistan have reached crisis levels. India’s second most powerful man and Home Minister Amit Shah declared the 65-year old treaty “will never be restored,” prompting Pakistan’s former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari to threaten war with India to secure water from “all six rivers.” At the heart of the conflict is India’s planned Rajasthan Canal—a move seen by Islamabad as weaponizing river flows by diverting Pakistan-bound rivers to India’s driest province. The standoff is deepening on multiple fronts: India is cracking down on alleged terror and espionage cells in Kashmir and Punjab, while Pakistan has extended its airspace ban on Indian aircraft. With Shah and Bhutto-Zardari front and center—and security agencies on both sides in high gear—diplomatic options are fading fast as India rejects any third-party mediation.

Why it Matters: For Pakistan, this is an existential crisis—over 80% of its agriculture hinges on the Indus waters. As tensions escalate, fragile ceasefires and hard-won peace deals hang by a thread. At the core lies a diplomatic fault line: India is doubling down on unilateral control, while Pakistan clings to international mediation. Water has become the new frontline, fusing territorial disputes, proxy warfare, and economic coercion into a single, combustible conflict.

What’s New: Pakistan is escalating through economic means rather than military. Its extension of the airspace ban on Indian aircraft—now renewed for a second month since the water dispute reignited—is a deliberate, measured pressure tactic aimed at Indian commercial interests without provoking open war. Economic Times estimates put the losses from losing access to Pakistani airspace at over $600 million annually due to longer routes and higher fuel costs.

Diplomatic Undercurrents: Adding to the geopolitical tension, India publicly rejected any role by the U.S. or Saudi Arabia in mediating the emerging crisis. Instead, New Delhi credited its own “autonomous decision-making,” a direct rebuke to Pakistan’s overtures to former President Trump, whom Islamabad nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize over his claimed interest in Kashmir mediation. The result? India is asserting regional dominance through unilateralism, while Pakistan leans on third-party diplomacy to internationalize its grievances.

4. Internal Stability

Who, What, Where, When: On June 23, 2025, questions arose again about Pakistan’s internal stability. The Lahore High Court reserved its verdict in Imran Khan’s bail hearings related to the May 9 riots and unrest—setting the stage for a potential political flashpoint. The same day, the military’s media wing, through DG ISPR, firmly declared that “only the state can announce jihad,” a pointed message aimed at curbing extremist rhetoric amid rising regional tensions.

Backstory: Pakistan’s post-election landscape remains volatile, with Imran Khan’s legal troubles representing a ticking time bomb for domestic unrest. The unresolved May 9 fallout—when PTI supporters clashed with security forces—continues to cast a shadow over civil-military relations, even though the Munir-Sharif-Bhutto-Zardari-led dispensation seems to have moved on. At the same time, the military is working to assert control over national narratives, particularly as external crises with India, Iran, and the U.S. unfold.

Tactical Takeaway: The reserved verdict in Imran Khan’s bail case is a political tripwire—any adverse ruling could reignite agitation—or Khan, who has currently suspended all protests—and undercut the government’s ability to project stability at home. The ISPR’s “monopoly on jihad” declaration is a strategic effort to reinforce institutional narrative control and prevent rogue elements from hijacking the national agenda under the banner of religious solidarity as Israel and America—the two of the three bogeymen in radical Pakistan’s imagination—bring conflict to its doorstep.

5. The Takeaway: South Asia’s Pressure Cooker Moment

Pakistan's June 2025 diplomatic gymnastics aren't evidence of confusion—they're a masterclass in modern middle-power survival. While Iran’s pioneered "missiles with manners" and India seems to have embraced water weaponization, Pakistan has perfected something more sophisticated: strategic incoherence as policy. Nominating Trump for peace prizes while condemning his strikes, backing Iran while reassuring the Saudis, threatening water wars while banning airspace—this isn't diplomatic schizophrenia, it's calculated chaos from the playbook of the former ISI spymaster, Lt. General Hamid Gul: “Talk, trade and torment at the same time.”

The playbook is clear: when you're stuck between superpowers, make fluid inconsistency your solid consistency. Pakistan's ability to compartmentalize contradictions—supporting Iranian "self-defense" while keeping nukes India-ready, courting Trump on Kashmir while condemning his Iran strikes—isn't weakness, it's adaptation to a world where rigid alliances are luxury items middle powers can't afford.

Our biggest takeaway for June: In a world where picking sides is a death sentence, Pakistan just wrote the survival manual.