The PakStack — June 20

What matters today in Pakistan, India and the rest of South Asia – in five minutes or less.

June 20, 2025
Written by Shiza M. | Edited by Wajahat S. Khan

Between Trump, China, Iran and Israel, Pakistan Navigates the Perfect Storm

When Prison Politics, Israeli Threats, and Great Power Competition Collide in South Asia

1. Iran-Pakistan-US-China Energy Triangle: Munir's Strategic Extortion

What, When & Where: On June 20, 2025, Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir inserted himself into Washington’s Iran war calculus—and came bearing leverage. As China’s Iranian oil intake plunged by over 50% (from 1.6m bpd to 0.74m bpd), fears of a Strait of Hormuz chokehold surged. The waterway handles 30% of global crude traffic. Munir warned Trump that if Iran collapses, Pakistan would face a 560-mile terror corridor via Balochistan—imperiling both U.S. assets and Chinese CPEC lifelines

Backstory: Pakistan has possibly angled itself to be the geo-strategic hinge between two nervy superpowers. China’s $62 billion CPEC bet makes it energy-dependent on Gwadar’s stability. Meanwhile, Washington—grappling with a Tehran quagmire—has started warming back up to Rawalpindi – not Islamabad – as a consultant who “knows Iran well,” according to Trump. Coincidentally, Trump’s closed press halal lunch with Munir has been followed by a pause in U.S. strike plans on Iran, feeding a narrative that GHQ’s still got the magic touch. Obviously, Munir and his generals love this take, but there’s more to Trump’s delay: a possible diplomatic opening via the Europeans with Iran.

Why it Matters: China’s supply chain is rattled. America’s Iran calculus is now filtered through a more sophisticated Pakistani lens, all while a diplomatic corridor opens up via the Europeans with Iran. And Pakistan? It’s leveraging both fears. If Tehran burns, CPEC gets charred—and that’s a message to Beijing. But if Trump pushes too far, Munir’s warning of a militant flood from Sistan-Balochistan is Islamabad's insurance policy against abandonment.

Tactical Takeaway: This isn’t just diplomacy—it’s strategic calculus at its sharpest. Pakistan has always enjoyed leveraging its geography, and its generals have grown up playing Risk like its Ludo, quickly turning geographic fragility into geopolitical currency. By framing itself as the only firewall between a collapsing Iran and a region-wide conflagration, Islamabad forces Washington to pause and Beijing to pay attention. The oil squeeze makes everyone nervous—but Pakistan? It's calm, calculated, and ready to collect rent at the toll booth of the world’s busiest energy artery.

2. Munir's Washington Seminar: Trump's Unorthodox Diplomacy

What, When & Where: On June 20, 2025, Field Marshal Asim Munir sat down for an off-the-books Cabinet Room lunch with Donald Trump—with no civilian present. Within 24 hours, Trump was reportedly pressing pause on a planned Iran strike. Online narratives, especially on the South Asian commentariat, credited Munir with the delay—a claim the White House neither confirmed nor denied, during his five-day visit to Washington, engaged with U.S. think tanks to showcase Pakistan’s lawful, diplomacy-first approach to regional and global conflicts—emphasizing its frontline anti‑terrorism sacrifices and emerging role as a constructive partner for global peace.

Backstory: This wasn’t just a meeting. It was a message. Washington is increasingly bypassing Islamabad’s civilian façade to deal directly with GHQ (but Munir’s lunch with Trump was followed by Sec State Rubio doing due diligence and calling Pakistan’s token Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif.. The Munir-Trump channel folds Pakistan into U.S. Iran strategy and confirms what New Delhi has long chafed at: Rawalpindi remains America’s preferred partner when regional crises erupt. For Pakistan, it reinforces the belief that nuclear leverage and military diplomacy still carry weight—especially when a Republican is in office.

Why it Matters: Delhi will cry foul. India sees this as evidence that Pakistan manipulates American restraint to tilt regional balances—and it may weaponize these optics at the UN, G7, and FATF. But for Pakistan, the real win is narrative dominance: when a general from a sanctioned economy gets a U.S. president to blink on Iran – or at the very least have a two-and-a-half hour lunch with him and which the POTUS considers an “honor,” the world notices.

Tactical Takeaway: Pakistan isn’t stumbling into these moments—it’s staging them. Munir’s Beltway visit reframed Islamabad not as a spoiler, but as a stabilizer with veto power. The Iran delay—whether coincidence or consequence—feeds both fear and awe. Call it what you want: shuttle diplomacy, crisis extortion, or just realpolitik—but Pakistan once again inserted itself in the game.

Quotable: "Within 24 hours of meeting Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir, President Trump has delayed action on Iran, saying there’s still a ‘chance of negotiations.’" — @Tiju0Prakash, Indian National Congress Influencer

3. Israeli Nuclear Threat: Ex-Defense Minister Targets Pakistan

What, When & Where: On June 18th 2025, former Israeli Deputy Defence Minister Meir Masri posted on X that Israel could “dismantle” Pakistan’s nuclear programme once it’s “done with Iran.” The comment by the Labor party member detonated across Pakistani social media, drawing a swift condemnation from Deputy PM Ishaq Dar. The escalation came as Israel claimed a 90% intercept rate in its ongoing missile duel with Iran

Backstory: This isn’t just trash talk—it’s strategic messaging. Israel’s deterrence rhetoric, once aimed squarely at Tehran, has now pivoted east, dragging Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine into a conflict it wasn’t even part of. For decades, Israeli security hawks have treated Pakistan’s arsenal as a wildcard—off-the-radar, but never off the list. Now, amid a live conflict with Iran, that latent suspicion has turned into open threat.

Why it Matters: Sure, this is all on social media, and Masri’s not in power or in any official capacity. But there is a narrative drip-drip-drip beginning here: Pakistan’s nuclear program is back under international scrutiny. This also gives Pakistan a fresh mandate to assert its deterrence posture—not just toward India, but now toward Tel Aviv. The Masri threat will likely be used to consolidate domestic backing for GHQ, just as Pakistan’s military faces dual-front anxieties in Balochistan and Kashmir. In fact, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar has already responded to the threat, calling it “fake news” and reaffirming that Pakistan’s nuclear assets are strictly defensive. Meanwhile, Israel’s reported 90% Iron Dome/David’s Sling intercept success will be watched closely in New Delhi, as India calibrates its own missile-defence ambitions post-Sindoor.

Tactical Takeaway: This isn’t anti-social media—it’s a narrative feeder about Israel’s intentions versus Pakistan’s position. The former deputy minister isn’t exactly fully loaded – he’s not in government, but does occupy Tel Aviv’s commentariat – but it isn’t exactly empty either. Moreover, the threat recasts Pakistan from regional bystander to nuclear bullseye. India’s bhakts and trolls are loving it, of course.

4. India's Itsy Bitsy Teeny Wheeny Counter-Narrative

What, When & Where: On June 20, 2025, Pakistan’s tightrope walk of military swagger and diplomatic finesse took a nosedive. Deputy PM Ishaq Dar, in a late-night Geo News appearance, casually admitted that Islamabad had been “compelled” to request Saudi mediation for a cease-fire with India after absorbing airbase strikes in May. Delhi pounced.

Quick Pause: At this point, someone really needs to take the mic away from Dar—and maybe also muzzle Khawaja Asif while we’re at it. With the region one misquote away from a media meltdown, Islamabad’s front bench might want to skip the chest-thumping and let the military do the talking if that is the strongest card we have.

Backstory: For weeks, Islamabad has projected Operation Sindoor as a tactical draw at worst, maybe even a deterrence victory. But Dar’s prime-time confession blew a hole in that façade. The “compelled” request routed via Riyadh came after Indian Air Force strikes on Shorkot and Nur Khan, —hits that temporarily grounded two JF-17 squadrons, according to NDTV. Until now, Islamabad had refused to publicly confirm that damage. Dar just did it for them, microphone in hand.

Why it Matters: New Delhi now has a gift-wrapped quote to sell its “punishment worked” narrative across local and global forums, bilateral briefings, and think-tank circuits. There’s some damage here, not a lot.

Tactical Takeaway: One unscripted sentence just did what Indian missiles and Pakistani press releases couldn’t: it punctured the myth of unilateral resolve. Expect Delhi to brandish Dar’s soundbite as proof of deterrence restored, while Islamabad scrambles to thread a new narrative—strong enough to deter India, vulnerable enough to justify foreign support—without tearing the whole flag apart.

5. Budget Crisis: Imran Khan's Prison Veto

What, When & Where: On June 20, 2025, Pakistan’s fiscal machinery jammed at both ends of the Grand Trunk Road. In Peshawar, KP Assembly Speaker Babar Swati flat-out refused to table the provincial budget until Imran Khan—jailed, but still party head—personally approved it from his prison cell. PTI controls 84 of the chamber’s 145 seats. The same day in Islamabad, PPP and MQM-P torched the federal FY-26 budget as “anti-Sindh” and threatened to yank their combined 70 swing votes—enough to tank the ruling coalition.

Backstory: In KP, not even school chalk gets bought without Khan’s signature. In Islamabad, Shehbaz Sharif’s majority survives on borrowed loyalty—and borrowed time. Add to that the Senate’s latest fiscal sleight-of-hand: scrapping the ₹50/L carbon levy (an actual revenue stream) and replacing it with a 10% surtax on elite pensions and cricket heroes—barely a rounding error. Result? A budget process that now resembles a hostage negotiation... with three separate hostage-takers.

Why it Matters: The IMF lands in six days. One failed budget vote and Pakistan blows its revenue benchmarks, freezes its next loan tranche, and hands India fresh talking points for its favorite diplomatic deck: “Why Pakistan is a Bad Bet, Slide 1 of 40.”

Tactical Takeaway: Islamabad is juggling three lit fuses: a provincial budget chained to a prison autograph, a federal coalition sharpening its knives, and a tax patchwork that wouldn’t fool an intern at the Fund. Drop any one, and the rupee could make a break for 330/$ before the IMF even unpacks its projector.

Quotable: “Chief Minister Ali Amin Khan Gandapur will meet Imran Khan [in jail]. He will approve and we will approve the budget on June 24. If he does not approve, we will follow the directions.” — Babar Saleem Swati, Speaker of the KP Assembly, Dawn, 20 June 2025

Takeaway

Pakistan has mastered the economics of controlled chaos—transforming every potential collapse into a cash register. Within 48 hours, Islamabad simultaneously held its own budget hostage pending a prison signature, publicly confessed that it allowed the Saudis to seek a ceasefire, advised America on Iran with Balochistan terror scenarios, and took Israeli nuclear threats on Twitter. Strategically, Pakistan has once again weaponized the "too-big-to-fail" doctrine, turning systemic fragility into systemic leverage. While other nations chase stability, Pakistan monetizes instability, extracting concessions from superpowers terrified of what 240 million people with nuclear weapons might do if the lights actually go out. The real question isn't whether Pakistan will survive this perfect storm—it's how much Beijing, Washington, and Delhi are willing to pay to keep finding out.