The PakStack — June 17

What matters today in Pakistan, India and the rest of South Asia – in five minutes or less.

June 17, 2025
Written by Shiza M. | Edited by Wajahat S. Khan

Trump’s New Diet: Iran for Breakfast, Field Marshal for Lunch

Asim Munir and Donald Trump to lunch tomorrow; Trump all but commits to joining the fight against Iran and South Asia's nukes click into hair-trigger mode.

ALERT: ASIM MUNIR WILL BE AT THE WHITE HOUSE TOMORROW

Field Marshal Asim Munir and Donald Trump are scheduled to meet at 1pm on June 18th in the White House, for lunch. This is no mean feat. The last time a Pakistani army chief met a US president was General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani “running into” President Obama in 2010. In 2015, General Raheel Sharif met Vice President Joe Biden, and in 2019, General Qamar Javed Bajwa served as wingman to PM Imran Khan when he met Trump 1.0. But this — a lunch, with closed press — with the Field Marshal is liked to a) trigger India b) stir analysis about what the Army Chief is selling to Trump 2.0 that’s worthy enough of a luncheon and c) confound the Pakistani diaspora, much of which hates Munir because of his role behind the imprisonment of Imran Khan.

Agenda: Expect the “4 Cs” — Critical Minerals, Crypto Diplomacy, China and Counterterrorism to be on the agenda, but also expect Munir to extract something about Kashmir from Trump. Critically, the Field Marshal is likely to weigh in about the future of the conflict with Iran. With regional security realignments all the buzz, Pakistan’s military role as a stabilizer in the Gulf and renewed military-tech cooperation will likely dominate the agenda—reactivating old channels between Rawalpindi and Washington.

1. No Ceasefire, No Secrets: Trump’s Iran Doctrine Goes Live

What, When & Where: On 17 June 2025, Donald Trump shattered diplomatic convention with a social media and soundbite blitz. From threatening Tehran with “total surrender” to revealing U.S. surveillance of Iran’s supreme leader, Trump redefined Washington’s red lines—no nuclear for Iran, ever—and started saying “we” control the skies over Tehran.

The Backstory:

• Talks? No Thanks: Aboard Air Force One, Trump said he’s “not interested in a ceasefire” but a “real end” to Iran’s nuclear capabilities. His bottom line: Tehran must abandon its entire program, not pause it.

• Another Assassination? Not yet: Trump claimed the U.S. knows Ayatollah Khamenei’s exact location, calling him an “easy target.” While insisting no strike is planned “for now,” the veiled threat was unmistakable.

• Optics of Overmatch: Trump also reiterated claims by Israel that it’s dominance of Iran’s skies is total, except now he’s not differing between the U.S. and Israel. His message: negotiations aren’t the path to peace—power is. Meanwhile, Iran reels from a week of precision Israeli strikes and mass casualties, including 11 generals and senior IRGC officials and nuclear scientists. The country’s new top military commander, installed just four days ago, was also killed by Israel.

Why This Matters: Trump’s doctrine—surveillance plus surrender—isn’t diplomacy; it’s deterrence through exposure. By unmasking intelligence capabilities and rejecting negotiation, the U.S. is escalating pressure while offering no off-ramps. That’s not a peace process—it’s a countdown.

Tactical Takeaway: This is brinkmanship without receipts. Trump is publicly claiming he knows a foreign leader’s coordinates while airstrikes are ongoing is a new play in the psychological warfare playbook. That, and getting directly involved in the conflict by urging Tehranis to evacuate. Stuck between an existential threat and unconditional surrender, Iran’s next move won’t just be defensive—it may be demonstrative. But Trump’s MAGA base remains anti-war, and stepping into a war of choice could hurt him in the long run, leaving only Israel as the beneficiary.

Quotable: “I didn’t say I was looking for a ceasefire… I want a real end—with Iran giving up entirely.” — President Trump, speaking on Air Force One,

2. Daylight Missiles & Night-time Panic: Iran-Israel War, Day 5

What, When & Where: 17 June 2025 —

• Dozens of Israeli air-strikes slam western Iran (Tabriz airbase, Kermanshah depots) in broad daylight, while Iranian rockets land in Herzliya and central Tel Aviv (Al Jazeera, AP).

• IAEA flash memo: Natanz underground halls “severely damaged”; total toll now 224 Iranians, 24 Israelis.

• Washington whiplash: President Trump orders all U.S. citizens to leave Iran “immediately” yet floats “high-level talks” and hints VP Vance could be dispatched (Reuters).

• Capitol Hill pushback: Reps. Massie & Khanna file a War Powers resolution to bar U.S. combat involvement (Politico).

• Oil markets lurch: Brent spikes to $78.5, then sinks to $73 as traders model a $120 worst-case if the Strait of Hormuz closes (FT).

The Backstory: Israel’s June 13 “Operation Rising Lion” shifted the conflict from shadow war targeting nuclear facilities and military chiefs to open salvos against energy infrastructure; Day 5 marks the first sustained daylight exchange over dense population centres. Tehran’s leadership losses mount, yet its missile cadence endures, banking on psychological leverage rather than precision parity.

Why This Matters: Missile diplomacy, congressional rebellion and oil-price vertigo are now fused. A single U.S. decision—tighten the leash or let Israel run—will ripple from Natanz centrifuges to Karachi fuel pumps and every emerging-market FX desk in between.

Tactical Takeaway: The war has entered a phase where market screens move faster than radar screens. If Washington green-lights deeper Israeli strikes while Congress clips presidential latitude, expect an awkward policy split: operational freedom on the ground, legislative shackles in the air.

Quotable: “Israel now defines security as ‘absolute and total impunity — the freedom to strike whoever it wants, wherever it wants, whenever it wants, without paying any price.’” — Ori Goldberg, Israeli political analyst, interview on Democracy Now! (June 17 2025)

3. Rupees, Rifts & Rage-Tweets: Islamabad’s Washington Headache

What, When & Where: 17 June 2025 — Four dominos line up in a single news cycle:

• Budget Poker: PPP & MQM-P threaten to sink the FY 25-26 budget as Dawn reports the bill is “anti-Sindh.”

• Tariff Tango: Finance Minister Aurangzeb and U.S. Commerce Sec. Lutnick agree—by late-night call—to fast-track talks on a 29 % tariff pause (Dawn, The News).

• Munir’s Beltway Blues: Field Marshal Asim Munir’s charm tour in Washington is hijacked by PTI-led street protests branding him a “dictator” (Dawn, NDTV). But Munir is having the last laugh by lunching with Trump.

• Twitter tirade: Defence Minister Khawaja Asif flames Iran’s ex-crown prince Reza Pahlavi as a “parasitical imperial whore” in an expletive-laden post on X.

The Backstory: Sharif’s coalition clings to a 70-vote lifeline supplied by PPP & MQM-P—now furious over tax hikes and FBR powers. Simultaneously, Islamabad is massaging Washington for tariff relief and defence tech—while its top general faces hostile placards on K Street and its defence minister torches diplomatic etiquette online.

Why This Matters:

• Domestic Stability: Sharif must either gut his own tax plan or reshuffle cabinet allies; either choice weakens the government ahead of IMF benchmarks.

• Economic Lifeline: Tariff talks could free dollars and diversify away from China, but success hinges on U.S. congressional goodwill—now clouded by diaspora protests and Asif’s vulgar tweet.

• Optics in DC & the Gulf: Riyadh and Abu Dhabi—hosts to Iranian exiles and patrons of strategic restraint—grimace at Khawaja Asif’s rhetoric, while U.S. lawmakers quietly clock Pakistan’s civil-military rift just as Islamabad pushes for tech transfers and market access.

Tactical Takeaway: Islamabad’s entire economic rescue plan depends on the very audiences it keeps alienating—coalition partners at home, lobby-watchers on Capitol Hill, and decorum-obsessed Gulf financiers. One mis-timed floor vote, protest sound-bite, or rage-tweet could cost Pakistan dollars it hasn’t yet borrowed.

Quotable: “If Iranian people are energised and motivated, according to you, show some balls and go back, lead them, remove the regime. Put your money where your arse is, bloody parasitical imperial whore.” — Khwaja Asif via X

4. Triads & Littorals: India’s Two-Front Power Play

What, When & Where: The SIPRI 2025 (Stockholm, 17 June) tallies India’s arsenal at 180 warheads and Pakistan’s at 170. On the same day, The Print confirms tomorrow’s commissioning of INS Arnala, India’s first purpose-built shallow-water-sub-hunter, while Indian Express notes a strict no fly-zone over the Amarnath Yatra (1 July–10 Aug) in Jammu & Kashmir

The Backstory:

• Nukes: After years of rough parity, Delhi is now canister-mating MIRV-capable Agni variants. Shifting toward high-readiness deterrence. Islamabad counters by expanding plutonium production and MIRV R&D, but still relies on last-minute warhead mating.

• Sea & Sky: India’s surface fleet lacked a dedicated littoral ASW corvette; Arnala plugs that gap. Simultaneously, Delhi’s post-Sindoor security doctrine tightens Kashmir’s airspace to pre-empt drone or missile surprises.

What This Matters: Peacetime-mated MIRVs plus a shallow-water “sub-sniffer” shrink Pakistan’s decision-making window by minutes at sea and seconds in the air. One sonar ping off Karachi or a drone false alarm over the Yatra corridor could leapfrog political channels and test red lines.

Tactical Takeaway: The region just traded a cautious equilibrium for a hair-trigger stand-off. Crisis hotlines, joint launch-notification, or at least a de-escalation playbook are no longer optional—they’re the new insurance premium against a sub-five-minute catastrophe.

Quotable: “Numbers grab headlines, but posture kills stability. From canister-mated MIRVs to littoral hunters, South Asia’s fuse just got shorter.” —SIPRI South Asia Analyst

5. The Takeaway: When Everything’s Live, Nothing De-escalates Quietly

Trump’s tirade today wasn’t just a turning point—it was a broadcast. The fog of war has lifted, not because peace is near, but because every player is now performing in real time. Trump’s doctrine of “no secrets, no ceasefire” turns diplomacy into a dare. Israel’s airstrikes double as press releases. Iran’s missile responses aim less for battlefield impact and more for psychological leverage, both at home and abroad. In Washington, Congress resists the executive warpath while the Pakistani military’s beltway charm offensive descends into embarrassing street protests and digital outbursts. And quietly but critically, India continues to shrink its own reaction time—canister-mating MIRV warheads, deploying littoral sub-hunters, and hardening airspace protocols in Kashmir.

In this new environment, retaliation may not look like return fire—it could come in the form of a cyber blackout, a proxy ambush, or a diplomatic embarrassment. The line between rhetoric and escalation is vanishing, as leaders weaponize information and optics as much as firepower. A tweet about a supreme leader’s coordinates isn’t just psychological warfare—it’s precedent. And with South Asia’s nuclear fuse now trimmed to minutes, the next misfire or false alarm could outpace diplomacy itself. The old rules of engagement assumed secrecy, strategy, and time. This new era has none. What comes next won’t be negotiated—it’ll be narrated.