The PakStack — June 16

What matters today in Pakistan, India and the rest of South Asia – in five minutes or less.

June 16, 2025
Written by Shiza M. | Edited by Wajahat S. Khan

Diplomacy by Airstrike, Delusion by Parade

India drops FATF catch, Munir’s bad timing in D.C., and Israel-Iran escalate

1. No Grey Area: Pakistan's FATF Escape Act

What, When and Where: Beijing, Ankara, and Tokyo threw Pakistan a diplomatic lifeline at the latest FATF plenary, blocking India's latest attempt to grey-list Islamabad again.

The Backstory: This isn't Pakistan's first rodeo in FATF purgatory. Grey-listed from 2008-10, 2012-15, and most recently 2018-2022, Islamabad finally caught a break in October 2022 after completing a grueling 34-point action plan. But after getting a bloody nose in Operation Sindoor, New Delhi’s treating FATF as a tactical pain-inducing tool.

Why This Matters: The failed grey-listing reveals the limits of India's narrative warfare. After Pulwama in 2019, Modi's team pushed to blacklist Pakistan entirely. When that flopped, they pivoted to threatening World Bank loans and preparing fresh dossiers. Now even that's dead on arrival. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s good friendship with China and Turkey has paid off once again, denying India unilateral leverage over regional finance flows.

Tactical Takeaway: Pakistan's FATF escape isn't just procedural—it's proof that Islamabad's compliance efforts gained genuine international credibility. Meanwhile, India's years-long campaign to weaponize financial oversight mechanisms has hit a wall of geopolitical reality. When Beijing, Ankara, and Tokyo form a blocking coalition, it signals that New Delhi's narrative about Pakistani non-compliance no longer resonates with key players.

Quotable: "Diplomatic win for Pakistan; shows Islamabad's terror-financing reforms gaining traction and limits New Delhi's narrative leverage." — The News’ analysis

2. Parade-Gate: Munir, the Media, and a Manufactured Moment

What Actually Happened: Remember all that breathless coverage about Field Marshal Munir getting VIP treatment at the U.S. Army's 250th anniversary parade? Pure fiction. A senior White House official flatly denied any foreign military leaders were invited, crushing Pakistani media's fever dreams of a five-star presidential bromance between Munir and Trump.

The Optics Disaster: Pakistan’s state-adjacent media turned Munir’s D.C. visit into a geopolitical fairy tale—complete with talk of strategic elevation and renewed military ties. In reality, it is turning out to be a quiet trip with no headline moments, yet. The false narrative spiraled so wildly that even members of India’s parliament raised alarm before the facts caught up.

Wishful Thinking, Weaponized: This episode didn’t just embarrass Islamabad. It exposed the mutual delusions of Indo-Pak commentary. Pakistani voices craved Western affirmation. Indian voices panicked at the thought. Both were reacting to shadows, not substance.

The Timing Problem: Munir would make a terrible batsman; his timing couldn’t have been worse. Pakistan’s top commander is inside the Beltway at a time when the only game in town is Israel versus Iran. Plus, the optics of being in D.C. at this time isn’t playing out too well for Pakistan’s pro-Iran/anti-Israel domestic audience.

Quotable: "Quashes speculation of a U.S.–Pakistan optics breakthrough and shows how Indo-Pak rivalry spills into domestic Indian politics." — Livemint analysis

3. Dragon's Devotion vs India's Deterrence Theater

India's Balancing Delusion: Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar is trying to finesse a “strong and stable” relationship with Beijing. Jaishankar, who’s been castigated by South Block critics for his “India First” arrogance, knows that this is an uphill task: China’s already picked a side. But India does need to stem the rot of ties with Bejiing. After stumbling on the Western front and failing to gather any major allies (short of Israel, the Taliban and Taiwan), before, during and after Sindoor, New Delhi now wants to flirt with the dragon.

The Iron Brothers Reality: Jaishankar can flirt away. Just a month ago, Chinese FM Wang Yi called Pakistan an "ironclad friend" and pledged Beijing would "stand firmly with Pakistan" on core interests. That wasn't diplomatic courtesy—it was strategic positioning. Post-Sindoor, China’s tag teamed with Pakistan at the Security Council, at the FATF, pushed CPEC, assuaged the Afghans, discounted new J-35 stealth fighters, air defense systems and even anti-drone platforms. India’s smart to court some courtesy from Beijing. Otherwise, it risks being boxed out—not just militarily, but diplomacy and economically—while its two neighbors draw new red lines over maps Delhi no longer gets to edit.

The Strategic Gap: India positions itself as a bridge to the Global South at G7 summits—but Pakistan enjoys what New Delhi doesn’t: unconditional strategic backing from the world’s second-most powerful country. Delhi calibrates every step; Islamabad gets a blank check. That’s not strategic balance—it's asymmetry. And India’s playing catch-up in a game where rules are already written… by someone else.

Quotable: "Beijing will stand firmly with Pakistan on core interests and territorial integrity." — Chinese FM Wang Yi

4. Apocalypse Math: When Civilizations Trade Blows

The Escalation Spiral: Iran launched ~100 ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv and Haifa, killing 8 and injuring over 100. Haifa’s commercial port and a U.S. Embassy branch took hits. Israel retaliated by flattening IRGC intelligence nodes, killing its intel chief and two generals, and claiming over a third of Iran’s missile batteries were destroyed. Airspace closures in both capitals confirm: this isn’t over, but the IAF has declared itself to be in control of Tehran’s skies.

Trump’s Schizophrenic Strategy: First, Trump vetoed an Israeli plot to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader, fearing full-scale war. Then he green-lit the June 13 strikes after internal hawks prevailed. Vox reports he shifted from restraint to reluctant backing—exposing D.C.’s volatile posture and increasing miscalculation risk. Tehran now weighs escalation through proxies; Tel Aviv braces for more direct hits.

The Nuclear Card: Iran’s parliament is fast-tracking a bill to quit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The government insists it still opposes WMDs—but exiting the NPT would shred IAEA oversight and ignite global proliferation fears.

Civilian Apocalypse: Iran reports 224 dead, 1,481 wounded—90% of them civilians. Israel’s toll since June 13 stands at 24 dead, ~400 wounded. As both sides rack up civilian losses, diplomatic off-ramps vanish under public rage and political hardening.

Quotable: "Escalatory rhetoric erodes space for mediation and hints at possible civilian-targeting thresholds—dangerous for rapid, uncontrolled spiral." — Reuters

5. War as Theater: Bibi’s Bombs and the Politics of Survival

The Real Agenda: According to an Al Jazeera op-ed, Israel’s June 13 airstrikes on Iran weren’t about neutralizing threats—they were about rewriting headlines. With Netanyahu cornered by Gaza backlash and an incoming ICC arrest warrant, the strikes served three goals: distract the domestic audience, derail any thaw between Washington and Tehran, and rebrand Israel as the West’s indispensable firewall against Iran.

The Diplomacy Scramble: The G7 fast-tracked the crisis to the Canada summit agenda. EU foreign ministers launched an emergency video call. Trump, meanwhile, played his classic hedging game—saying a deal is possible but also musing that both sides may have to “fight it out.”

Why It Matters: If Israel’s assault was more political than preemptive, it reframes the stakes. This isn’t just military escalation—it’s narrative control by missile. Netanyahu’s next move looks more like survival than strategy. That makes ceasefire calculus harder, and miscalculation far more likely.

Quotable: "The strikes weren’t just about Tehran—they were about saving Tel Aviv’s political class from collapse." — Ori Goldberg from Al Jazeera

The Takeaway: Parades, Proxies, and the Point of No Return

This week’s start lays bare the schizophrenic nature of regional power plays. Pakistan dodged a financial bullet thanks to Beijing’s umbrella, then stumbled into a PR mess chasing Washington’s shadow. India’s deterrence theatrics fell flat at FATF but remain dangerously alive in the subcontinent’s media bubbles. Meanwhile, China’s backing of Islamabad isn’t just rhetorical—it’s structural and growing.

But the real flashpoint is west of Balochistan. As Israel and Iran move from shadow ops to open warfare, we are no longer talking about surgical strikes—we’re watching a political survival campaign unfold under the cover of ballistic missiles. Netanyahu isn’t just targeting Tehran—he’s dodging The Hague while murdering in Gaza and rewriting headlines at home. What looks like strategy may simply be self-preservation, with the world caught in the crossfire.

Expect sharper proxy clashes, missile salvos disguised as “warnings,” and desperate diplomacy disguised as restraint. South Asia may feel distant—but when nukes and airspace are in play, no front is safe.

And in Islamabad and New Delhi? Watch for who learns the right lesson from Tel Aviv and Tehran: narrative warfare and parade optics mean nothing when missiles fly—and everything when they don’t. Because in this endgame, the biggest threat isn’t who strikes next—it’s who’s pretending they won’t.