The PakStack — July 3/4
From trade diplomacy to courtroom drama, Pakistan’s military is choreographing a survival strategy built on minerals, muscle, and manufactured consensus
Welcome to The PakStack, where what matters today in Pakistan, India and the rest of South Asia can be processed in five minutes or less.
Written by Shiza M. and Wajahat S. Khan
Note: PakStack will not be publishing on the Fourth of July on account of it being a holiday in the U.S. Thus, this late version.
The New Republic: Where Generals Mine the Earth, Judges Rig the Seats, and Democracy Wears a Disguise
Live from New York, it’s Jaishankar’s Cul De Sac!
There are U-Turns, and there are Cul De Sacs. In urban planning, a cul-de-sac is a dead-end street with only one inlet/outlet and a rounded end (often a circle or bulb). But metaphorically, it refers to any situation or path with no further progress possible. That’s where India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar finds himself. Castigated for failing to isolate Pakistan, and accused of haughtily lecturing his Western counterparts, the career diplomat has been forced to finally admit what the Americans have been saying all along: That they brokered the ceasefire. This is in contravention to what PM Modi’s office said after the 35-minute G7 summit call to Trump recently: “Talks for ceasing military action happened directly between India and Pakistan through existing military channels, and on the insistence of Pakistan. Prime Minister Modi emphasised that India has not accepted mediation in the past and will never do.” If you watch Jaishankar’s Newsweek interview (Pakistan is mentioned at 42.00 minutes), the Indians are finally coming around to the truth: They attacked Pakistan; the Pakistanis counterattacked; they counter-counterattacked; and the Americans told everyone to stop it.
The PTI’s Last Dance? Nearing 700 Days in Jail, Imran is Confronted by Deputies Who Want Negotiations and a KP Government Nearing End of Days
PTI’s jailed leaders are waving the white flag—urging jailed leader Imran Khan to talk to civilian parties, a quiet admission that defiance isn’t working in a system rigged to crush dissent with legalese and force.
Meanwhile, PM Shehbaz Sharif is huddling with his inner circle, plotting how to topple PTI’s KP government.
Rumors of a no-confidence vote in KP have been denied. But word on the street is that some advisors are urging the government to let the PTI die a natural death.
This has happened during a parallel power play: the Supreme Court has gifted the ruling coalition 77 reserved seats—flipping the script and handing them a fake two-thirds majority with legal trickery.
The consensus formula for appointing a neutral Election Commissioner is quietly dismantled, hollowing out a core democratic safeguard and cementing elite control over electoral oversight.
Nobody is standing in the way of the military and their stooges’ brazen powergrab
Takeaway: As he approaches 700 days in jail, the PTI’s inner circle has told Imran Khan to negotiate or watch the state impose its own settlement, a sign that sheer resistance is bleeding the party dry. KP remains his last redoubt, and PTI ministers there dare Islamabad to unseat them, knowing any no-confidence push would shred the regime’s “constitutional” veneer. Yet the real coup happened in court: the Supreme Court’s seat-shuffle gifted the ruling coalition a two-thirds majority overnight, turning parliament from arena to rubber stamp. Add the government’s quiet burial of the bipartisan formula for picking an Election Commissioner, and the message is clear—neutral umpires are a luxury the elite can no longer afford. What emerges is a hybrid order edging toward overt one-party rule: khaki guardians call the tempo, civilian allies hum along, and the judiciary supplies the sheet music. PTI can sue, march, or compromise, but the battleground has already moved off the streets and into rooms where the electorate never enters.
Heads Up: While June saw a dip in terror attacks, July is seeing increased activity. But after a spate of suicide attacks, latest one yesteday in Bajaur that killed five along with the Assistant Commissioner of the district, Pakistani forced have killed 30 “Indian proxies.” Of note is that the Pakistani military has adopted to take a more stark position against New Delhi since 2024, when the Pakistani Taliban were redesignated as Fitna-Al-Khwarij. The nomenclature is Islamist, and a signature of Asim Munir’s GHQ. More Islamism to come? There are talks of another amendment that might formalize his powers. But how, exactly, do you promote a king?
Asim Munir’s Sales Pitch
What PakStack reported last week has now been confirmed by the Financial Times: Pakistan is making unconventional pitches—dangling bitcoin, a Trump Nobel nod, and over a trillion dollars worth of antimony, a rare mineral used in batteries—as engagement bait in high-stakes U.S. trade talks.
With July 9 ticking down, Islamabad scrambles to dodge 29% tariffs that could crush its exports—offering oil deals and Reko Diq’s buried treasure in return.
Field Marshal Asim Munir—newly promoted to the army’s highest rank—sat down for a private lunch with Trump at the White House a little more than two weeks ago, and people are still talking about it. The U.S. is now brazen about Pak’s hybrid system, and dealing directly with the khakis.
Takeaway: They’re still talking in Washington and London about the Field Marshal who got a MAGA hat and a key to the White House. But Pakistan’s latest foreign-policy sprint is less chess, more high-stakes bazaar. With a 29 percent U.S. tariff cliff only days away, Islamabad has emptied its display case: Reko Diq’s buried metals, permission to plug crypto rigs into the national grid, and standing by that absurd Nobel nod for Donald Trump. A wily salesman, Field Marshal Asim Munir —nicknamed “The Deceiver” by his mates at Quetta’s Staff College — has managed to tap into Washington’s most rewarding reserve: Donald Trump’s ego and his family business. With crypto, minerals, Nobel flattery and free consultation session on Iran, Munir has not just been praised by Trump for being “most impressive” but also returned back home to consolidate even more power. But strip away the theater and two truths remain: Pakistan’s economy can’t absorb a tariff shock, and its generals still carry the country’s diplomatic passport. Everything else—awards, bitcoin, invented endorsements—is bargaining glitter tossed into a very impatient wind.
Some say that Asim Munir should have decline the Washington meeting. As it imposes untrustworthiness over Pakistani state on behalf of its neighbors especially Iran.
It's said that Washington played the chess move of 1st calling Munir to its office & then launching attack couple of hours later. Though diplomatically, it can be settled b/w Pakistan & Iran, but untrustworthiness still remains.