The PakStack — July 1

India talks back to Trump; Mamdani and Muslims targeted by the mainstream; Imran Khan gets robbed again

Welcome to The PakStack, where what matters today in Pakistan, India and the rest of South Asia can be processed in five minutes or less.

Written by Shiza M. / Edited by Wajahat S. Khan

Stolen mandates, missing uranium, pushy diplomats and hateful elites dominate South Asian headlines…

PTI’s Robbed – Again: Court transfers PTI’s reserved seats to ruling coalition, sidelining direct-election norms

• Parties like PML‑N, JUI‑F, and PPP end up with more seats relative to their general seats, since PTI-backed independents are excluded from the process

• Move fast-tracks legislation, avoids coalition wrangling, and strengthens executive powers

• PTI demands full 12-judge verdict, highlighting discrepancies in the court’s ruling

• Usman Ali defects to PML‑N, accused by PTI of betrayal under pressure

• Fears rise of further defections; Aleema Khan calls for post-Muharram activism

Takeaway: After a series of unfortunate events in 2024– like bulldozed legislation and abducted MNAs – Pakistan’s parliamentary landscape is being defaced yet again, and not in Imran Khan and his PTI’s favor. The Supreme Court, mostly manned by military-sanctioned judges, has effectively handed over PTI’s reserved seats to the ruling alliance, paving the way for a clear two-thirds parliamentary majority and a sweeping legislative agenda. This move sidelines democratic fairness and marginalizes the voice of the PTI, till recently the single largest party in parliament, parliamentary voice, accelerating political consolidation under a veneer of constitutional legality. In response, PTI is mounting a legal challenge, exposing inconsistencies in the verdict while grappling with damaging defections like Usman Ali’s, which reveal cracks in party loyalty. As Aleema Khan rallies for renewed activism and external engagement by Punjab lawmakers, PTI faces a pivotal test: can it sustain momentum amid judicial setbacks and internal fragmentation, or will it further lose ground in the evolving power play?

India Pushes Back Against Trump, Even As It Wrangles a Trade Deal

• India’s FM Jaishankar joins Modi in rejecting Trump’s claim that trade threats led to India-Pak May ceasefire

• Israel’s envoy to India, named Pakistan and North Korea involved in nuclear proliferation during The Print’s Off The Cuff discussion in New Delhi

• Pakistan assumes UN Security Council presidency for July

Takeaway: Trump’s unfiltered diplomacy is still triggering fire fights from South Block. India’s top diplomat, S. Jaishankar, who is currently in the United States to participate in the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on July 1 in Washington, becomes the second Indian official after Narendra Modi to deny the American president’s claim that it was trade pressure from his office that forced India into a ceasefire with Pakistan—calling the claim factually wrong and strategically misleading, stating, “I was there,” to emphasize his presence during the ceasefire process. Meanwhile, Israel’s envoy to Delhi has managed to play to the gallery by pulling Pakistan into the mainstream, criticizing Islamabad and pairing it with Pyongyang, claiming that the Islamic Republic and North Korea are both proliferators of nuclear weapons. This will make heads turn in Pakistan, which is still trying to balance the strategic tightrope it walks after Trump’s Operation Midnight Hammer in aid of Israel against Iran. In this swirl of power recalibration, Pakistan stepped into the UN’s global spotlight as Security Council president for July, promising transparency and multilateralism just as India defends its autonomy and readies to seal a trade deal with the US. The subcontinent is once again in the crosshairs of global narratives—and this time, it’s not just about borders, but influence.

Bonus Read: Derek Grossman’s take in Nikkei Asia on how Trump has cracked the US-India relationship

PS: PakStack Editor Wajahat S. Khan has interviewed Grossman; watch out for the link soon.

Rising Lion, Tumbling Systems: Iran Slams Door on IAEA Monitor

• Tehran plays hardball in post‑attack standoff as Iran’s nuclear regulators cut off phone lines and stopped communications with IAEA officials in Vienna

• Status of Iranian uranium stocks remain unverified after U.S. and Israeli attacks in June

• Note: Tehran’s parliament overwhelmingly voted (221‑2) to suspend cooperation with the IAEA pending security guarantees for its nuclear sites

• The IAEA warns of a challenging “cat‑and‑mouse” recovery effort amid the rubble–and possible uranium transfers, meaning that key nuclear materials may have been hidden, relocated, or even smuggled out before inspectors were blocked, complicating efforts to verify Iran’s nuclear activities

• Iran insists its program remains peaceful and vows to accelerate uranium enrichment

Takeaway: After June, Iran has finally answered with a stark move, slamming the door on the UN’s IAEA inspectors. By freezing communications, halting cooperation, and hardening its rhetoric, Tehran has turned opacity into a bargaining chip. With uranium stockpiles now hidden under rubble—or possibly relocated—the IAEA's ability to verify Iran’s peaceful nuclear intent is gravely weakened. As Iran vows to speed up enrichment and plays nuclear politics with newfound zeal, diplomacy faces uncertainty. Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer roared and struck, but the strategic outcome remains unclear — did they delay a threat or deepen a standoff? Adding to the ambiguity, President Trump has claimed that new talks with Iran are expected to begin next week.

Zohran Mamdani’s NYC Win Sparks Islamophobic Backlash — Rising hate targets Muslim political breakthrough

• After Mamdani’s establishment shattering victory in Democratic primary for New York City mayor, a wide surge in Islamophobic rhetoric from far-right figures rattles across America

• Accusations of anti-Semitism, pro-Jihad and even being “Mohammad Mao” followed by calls to revoke Mamdani’s citizenship

• Prominent conservative politicians amplify hostile and hateful narratives

Takeaway: Zohran Mamdani’s victory marks a significant moment for Muslim representation in U.S. politics, but it has also triggered a wave of Islamophobic backlash that exposes persistent prejudice within mainstream political circles. These high-profile attacks, which range from US Congressmen to conservative podcasters to even a former national security advisor, are premised on baseless accusations and threats to citizenship, highlighting the challenges faced by Muslim Americans striving for political inclusion. Amidst this hostile environment, community advocates stress the importance of unity and anti-racism efforts to protect democratic values and ensure diverse voices are heard. Meanwhile, Mamdani is undeterred, and has clearly defended his plans for reforming New York’s tax, transport and food systems, by specifically targeting those neighborhoods that had voted for Trump in 2024.

Violence Against Women and Children Surges in KP — HRCP report Highlights Worsening Crisis

• Sharp rise in violence targeting women and children

• Sectarian and tribal clashes cause deaths and blockades

• 150+ new enforced disappearance cases recorded

• Labour rights violations and miner deaths reported

• Floods and pollution worsen public health situation

Takeaway: The HRCP report reveals a deepening crisis in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where violence against women and children is escalating alongside deadly sectarian and tribal conflicts disrupting daily life. Enforced disappearances remain alarmingly high, while labour abuses and fatal mining accidents expose further vulnerabilities. Environmental hazards like floods and severe air pollution compound the province’s woes, underscoring an urgent need for robust law enforcement, human rights protections, and targeted humanitarian aid to stabilize KP’s fragile social fabric. Meanwhile, it remains unclear who the PTI’s Chief Minister, Ali Amin Gandapur, really serves: his political mentor, Imran Khan, and the millions who voted for a record third time for the PTI – or his political masters at GHQ.