The PakStack — June 12

What matters today in Pakistan, India and the rest of South Asia – in five minutes or less.

By Shiza M. | Edited by Wajahat S. Khan

Crash, Cash, and Calculations

A fatal flight, a fiscal gamble, and South Asia’s high-stakes choreography of diplomacy and deterrence

1. Air India 787 Crash: Horror in Ahmedabad, Pressure on Boeing

What, When and Where: A Boeing 787 Dreamliner flying from Ahmedabad to London crashed yesterday afternoon shortly after takeoff, striking the B.J. Medical College hostel near the Sardar Patel Airport. All 242 passengers are presumed dead, with at least five confirmed fatalities on the ground. This is the first-ever fatal crash involving a Dreamliner and India’s worst aviation disaster since 2010.

Who: The 242 passengers included 169 Indians, 53 Britons, 7 Portuguese nationals, and 1 Canadian;

Why: The black box remains missing; social media analysts point to a possible flap failure as seen in takeoff footage;

What else: Boeing’s stock fell nearly 8% amid renewed scrutiny. India has grounded all similar aircraft pending investigation. Global responses have come in swiftly from Prime Ministers Modi and Starmer, King Charles III, the UK Foreign Office, Boeing, Air India, the DGCA, and the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB).

About Boeing stock crash: “It’s a knee‑jerk reaction (to the incident) and there’s revised fears of the problems that plagued Boeing aircraft and Boeing itself in recent years.” — Chris Beauchamp, analyst at IG Group

2. Asim in America: Parade, Pivot, or Power Move?

What, When and Where: Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir has landed in Washington for an official three-day visit that is yet to be officially announced. He is expected to meet CENTCOM’s Gen. Kurilla, Secretary of State/National Security Advisor Marco Rubio, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in stops across D.C. and Florida. A special guest at the US Army’s Birthday, the 250th Army Day which is to be celebrated as a parade on June 14th at 6:30pm on Washington’s National Mall), the parade also coincidentally falls on President Trump’s 79th birthday and Flag Day.

Next: Though it’s unlikely if Munir will be meeting Trump for a bilat, the President is expected to be at the parade, and the two may rub shoulders there. If Trump does shake Munir’s hand, expect the Field Marshal’s stock to keep on rising.

Why is this important: The trip marks a sharp shift. Just weeks ago, U.S. lawmakers were discussing sanctions against Munir and floating the Pakistan Democracy Act. Now, just a month after Pakistan’s Air Force pilots gave India a bloody nose with a made-in-China killchain of electronic warfare featuring jets and missiles provided by Beijing, Munir is being courted by Washington’s top security circles. Likely topics of discussion: counterterrorism, Pakistan’s proximity to China, and newfound mineral reserves that the US has shown an interest in. Munir controls Pakistan’s policies in all three domains: security, diplomacy and economics.

Also: Kashmir is likely to come up. The US President wants to help mediate the disputed region. Obviously, the Indians have dismissed this idea. But will the Field Marshal manage to exact another statement or two from the administration that chafes India? Depends on what he’s offering the Americans, besides ISIS-K leaders’ heads on a platter.

About Washington’s ties with Pakistan: “We have to have a relationship with Pakistan and with India. I do not believe it is a binary switch that we can't have one with Pakistan if we have a relationship with India.” — Gen. Michael Kurilla, Commander of U.S. CENTCOM

3. Mini-Budget, Mega Jets: Pakistan’s Fiscal Gamble

If Imran Khan, the Financial Times, the Business Recorder and even Dawn agree that Pakistan’s ‘25-26 budget sucks, then it most probably does. No important reforms were introduced by Pakistan’s least favorite Wharton-grad, Finance Minister Aurungzeb. At a time when the establishment is firmly behind the PML-N led coalition, the opposition is in shambles/jail, the judiciary is neutered and macroeconomic stability and inflation are under control, ‘25-26 would’ve been a good time for critical reforms. Instead, Aurungzeb and the Babus have done what bureaucrats do best: look busy and do nothing.

Moreover, less than 24 hours after unveiling a 20% defence hike that depends on more taxes and levies, Pakistan’s government has floated a Rs 500 billion mini-budget, “Wary Auri” has warned of new taxes if Parliament blocks tax enforcement powers.

Quotable: “The budget lacks ambition and fails to present a coherent roadmap for economic revival.” — Khurram Hussain, Dawn Columnist, June 12, 2025

4. India Watch: Grey Lists

Grey Lists, Dark Matters: India begins lobbying to place Pakistan back on the FATF grey list at today’s plenary in Paris, claiming Islamabad still finances terror proxies. India has successfully lobbied to get Pakistan on the FATF twice since the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Grey-listing would complicate IMF benchmarks and future borrowing.

Quotable: “Re-listing would turn financial screws tighter than any missile.” — CNBC, June 12, 2025

Conclusion: All Signal, No Settlement

The region is bracing—but not resolving. Pakistan is doubling down on military spending it cannot afford and diplomatic outreach via its political and military elites. Asim Munir is getting stronger, and unless the PTI gets its house in order, it will remain disorganized and decentralized versus a highly disciplined and united army. India is reeling from the crash, but politically, Modi’s not going anywhere unless Congress takes advantage of internal reviews and defense weaknesses. As for the US, courting Pakistan will come at the cost of dissing India: a high-risk maneuver the administration seems ready to launch into.